Recently, the "excess capacity to say" to the whole industry has brought new energy shock Laptop Battery, a variety of voices followed. For a time, prospects for the development of new energy industries in the number of uncertain factors.
China's new energy industry, the existence of excess capacity, how will the future development? With these questions, this reporter interviewed a few days ago the State Department counselor, China Renewable Energy Society for Shi Dinghuan.
"Excess of that" biased
At present, including large hydropower, renewable energy, including energy consumption in China's 2.6 billion tons of standard coal in the proportion of less than 10%, while in 2020 this ratio reached 15% important, when the demand of China's total energy consumption likely close to 40 million tons of coal. Clearly, to achieve that goal still a considerable distance. In such a dell Latitude D620 battery situation, the new energy "excess capacity to say" how can one talk? Shi Dinghuan, spoke directly to the hearts of questions.
"New energy production capacity is surplus, should the market to a conclusion." Shi Dinghuan to suffer overcapacity question of polysilicon, for example, using detailed data analysis of its market status. He said polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic solar cell industry chain, a link, different from the balance to unbalanced links, from unbalanced to balanced is a relative dynamic process, this process is regulated through the market.
First of all, from a global perspective, in 2008 the world's polysilicon dell RC107 battery production 6.49 million tons, of which 24.4 thousand tons of electronic grade polysilicon, solar grade polysilicon 40.5 thousand tons. In 2008 the global solar cell production to 7900 megawatts (MWp), in which thin-film battery output 895 MWp, crystalline silicon battery output of 7005 MWp. Solar grade polysilicon in accordance with the 2008 consumption level of 8 tons / MWp standard solar grade polysilicon in 2008 the total demand for 56.04 thousand tons. In a portion of electronic-grade polysilicon to single crystal silicon material in the form of head and tail into the photovoltaic field, which accounts for electronic-grade polysilicon 1 / 10, that is, 2440 tons, so the actual demand for solar grade polysilicon for the 53.6 thousand tons . This 2008 production of solar grade polysilicon compared to 13.1 thousand tons are still missing. Thus, until 2008, the global polysilicon continues in short supply.
Specific to China, in 2005 years ago, China's polysilicon industry was virtually nonexistent. At that time the only one to survive China's polysilicon dell Y9943 battery production capacity of enterprises is only an annual output of 100 tons, far below the global polysilicon industry, and above every turn-kiloton scale. In recent years, strong demand in the global PV market pull, as well as the efforts of industry, our country has finally established its own polysilicon industry, has started production of polysilicon production line using closed-circuit loop, clean production processes and Siemens, improved technologies, and reached a production capacity of 1000 tons and above, some enterprises has reached the level of energy consumption 150-170 kWh / kg (kWh / kg).
China Renewable Energy Society statistics show that in 2008, China's polysilicon production was 4721 tons, compared to 17.85 thousand tons of market demand, is still a lack of 13,129 tons; in 2009, China's production of crystalline silicon cells will be about 3500 MWp, dell Inspiron 640m battery In accordance with 7.5g/Wp terms, total of 26.25 thousand tons polysilicon, while in 2009 China's polysilicon production is estimated at 1.3 million tons. Clearly, there is still more than half of polysilicon to be imported.
Shi Ding-huan said that although China's tight polysilicon supply situation is easing, but the actual demand and supply perspective, does not exist so-called "excess capacity."
"Excess capacity to say" Behind the
Since there is no "excess capacity", the new energy "excess capacity" was another come from? In this regard, Shi Dinghuan analysis, "capacity" concept is one of the main unclear.
Generally speaking, capacity refers to a product line or a business, an industry already have, or the formation of production capacity, actual production dell Inspiron 630m battery capacity, can not be planned capacity, design capacity and capacity under construction, confused.
Shi Dinghuan, for example, a production line under construction in the actual production capacity is zero; a production line has just started production of the actual production capacity and design capacity is also completely different. If a design capacity of 1,000 tons of polysilicon production enterprises in the start of the first year of production of 200 tons, then the year to achieve the actual production capacity is 200 tons, not statistics of 1,000 tons.
Shi Dinghuan pointed out that the shortage in the market situation, a business then the actual production may exceed its design capacity, because in short supply, the plant is at full capacity, so no matter how much of its design capacity, should use the year to measure real output; in excess of dell 6T473 battery demand, the products unmarketable, there is underemployment, the actual output will be less than the capacity.
Shi Dinghuan emphasized that the capacity, design capacity and capacity under construction, with many uncertain factors, should not be a reliable basis for industrial development.
The development of new energy long way to go
The development of new energy industry is to achieve a low carbon economy and sustainable development, the only way, however, at present China's new energy in the composition of the proportion of energy consumption would be minimal. The urgent need for new energy industry, government and society for the understanding and support.
At present, China's new energy industry development is faced with supporting infrastructure, imperfect, the market can accommodate a number of factors are not high degree of constraints, there have been some problems.
Shi Dinghuan believe that no matter how many problems, disputes the extent of substitution should follow the national energy strategy, adhere to the "new dell Inspiron 5100 battery energy sources to replace traditional energy sources to edge alternative energy scarce energy sources to renewable energy alternative to fossil energy" development.
Shi Dinghuan pointed out that in the process of development of new energy industries, the Government should play a basic role of market regulation at the same time, strengthen macro-control and guidance, in particular, to strengthen the construction of science and technology innovation system to form by engaging in basic and strategic research " national team "and the enterprise as the mainstay, combining production and research team composed of technical innovation army of scientific and technological innovation.
At present, China's new energy business a lot, but the R & D investment and talent are dell Inspiron 1100 battery more scattered and difficult to form a strong, country-level research team. Focus on the future development of new energy industries, the Chinese Renewable Energy Society is co-related organizations to build Beijing Solar Electric Power Research Institute.
In the Shi Dinghuan view, this is a new industry in exploring the development of supporting methods, both for government decision-making services, but also to provide assistance for the enterprise technology; both a major strategic research, to focus on development of basic and cutting-edge technologies, but also the implementation of Important information collection, analysis and publishing, and strive to create an open, network-oriented public R & D platform.
"I hope it will develop into the field of solar power in China's 'national team', led the development of solar energy industry, thus contributing to a whole new energy dell C1295 battery industry development." Shi Ding-wan, said.